NPA Pig Industry Blog - November 23, 2023: Slight fall for SPP, estimated slaughterings rise; Cranswick grows revenue
23rd Nov 2023 / By Alistair Driver
Updates on the latest developments as the NPA seeks solutions to the long-running crisis that has hit the pig sector.
November 23, 2023
Slight fall for SPP, estimated slaughterings rise
The EU-spec SPP fell for the sixth consecutive week during the week ended November 18, but the rate of decline has slowed - it was down by just 0.09p to stand at 217.15p/kg.
In contrast, the SPP had fallen by, on average, close to a penny a week for the previous five weeks. It has now fallen for 12 out of the last 13 weeks, losing 8.5p since mid-August, but remains about 16.5p ahead of a year ago.
The APP, which includes premium pigs, was down by 0.43p during the week ended November 11 to stand at 216.98p/kg, closing the gap slightly on the SPP to just 0.26p, as the reversal of the usual relationship continues.
The main factors driving falling prices appear are a weakening domestic demand for pork, allied with falling EU prices, while rising carcase weights have also been cited as a factor.
The EU reference price for the week ended November 12 was fractionally down at 184.67p/kg, having fallen by more than 30p since mid-July. The gap to the UK Reference narrowed slightly to just under 30p, albeit still high by historic standards and continuing to make imported pork relatively attractive.
Estimated GB slaughterings grew significantly during the week ended November 18, up by more than 14,000, to 172,667, virtually identical to the figure of a year ago, following weeks of large year-on-year deficits of in the region of 15,000 to 20,000. While this maybe significant, it is worth cautioning that these estimated are frequently later revised.
After hitting the highest average this year, at just over 91.kg, average carcase weights dropped back slightly to 90.72kg in the SPP sample in the week ended November 18, 1.4kg ahead of the equivalent week a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £186/tonne for November, similar to a week ago, and £191/tonne for January, slightly down on last week.
November 22, 2023
Cranswick grows revenues again
Cranswick grew its revenue by 12.3% year-on-year to just over £1.25 billion in the six months to September 23. Adjusted profit before tax for the period, at £81.6m, was 23.6% up year-on-year.
Cranswick said this ‘strong’ first half of the year reflected ‘effective inflation recovery and resilient volume growth across all four core UK food categories’ – fresh pork, gourmet, convenience and poultry.
Its latest financial statement also sets out more details on its herd growth over the past six months.
Full story HERE
Pilgrim's reduces its emissions
Meanwhile, in its inaugural Pilgrim’s UK 2030: Sustainability Strategy Progress Report, Cranswick's leading UK rival sets out how it has has reduced its scope 1 & 2 emissions by 62.5% over three years.
It is pursuing a target of reaching net zero in its own operations by 2030 and in its wider supply chain by 2035.
Full story HERE
November 17, 2023
UK pig slaughterings still way down year on year in October
UK pig slaughterings recovered slightly in October but remain well down on 2022 levels.
The latest Defra slaughter statistics show UK clean pig slaugherings at 882,000 in October, compared with 813,000 in September, but still nearly 8% down on the October 2022 figure of 958,000.
On a weekly basis, clean pig slaugherings averaged 199,000 in October, up from 190,000 in September, but well down on the 216,000 pigs per week in October 2022.
Pigmeat production in October was 82,000 tonnes, down by a similar proportion, 7.8%, on October 2022.
More HERE
November 16, 2023
SPP dips again as carcase weight rise
Pig prices continue to fall steadily, but the most notable element of the latest weekly market round-up is the relentless rise in carcase weights.
The EU-spec SPP fell for the fifth consecutive week, dropping back by 0.54p during the week ended November 11 to stand at 217.24p/kg.
The latest decline follows the previous week’s dip of 1.1p, and means the SPP has now fallen for 11 out of the last 12 weeks. It has now lost 8.5p since mid-August, although it remains 17p ahead of a year ago.
The APP, which includes premium pigs, was down by 1.21p during the week ended November 4 to stand at 217.41p/kg. This left it fractionally behind the SPP, as the reversal of the usual relationship continues.
Falling prices appear are being driven by a combination of weakening domestic demand for pork and falling EU prices since the summer.
The EU reference price for the week ended November 5 was down by nearly another penny to 184.75p/kg, mainly reflecting falls in France and Spain, meaning it has now come back more than 30p since mid-July.
The gap between the UK and EU reference now stands at close to 32p, relatively high by historic standards and compared with the single figure gaps that persisted for much of this year to the early autumn.
Estimated GB slaughterings remain significantly below year earlier levels. The figure for the week ended November 11 was up by a few hundred on the previous week at 152,201, which was 22,000 lower than the same week in 2022.
Carcase weights in the SPP sample have hit the highest average this year, at 91.05kg, up by 0.64kg on the week. This is the first time the average has topped the 91kg-mark since May 2022, when the backlog was still being worked through. The latest figure was 1.6kg ahead of the equivalent week a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £186/tonne for November, slightly down on a week ago, and £194/tonne for January, slightly up on last week.
November 14, 2023
More change at Pilgrim's
The current president of Pilgrim's UK, Ivan Siqueira, has been appointed as president of Pilgrim’s Europe.
Parent company US-based Pilgrim's Pride said this was a 'new strategic position within the Pilgrim’s family and will enable greater collaboration among the organisation’s businesses in Europe'. Mr Siqueira will take overall responsibility for Pilgrim’s UK, Moy Park, Pilgrim’s Food Masters and Pilgrim’s Shared Services Ltd.
More HERE
Coffey's final China mission
Thérèse Coffey might not have set the world alight at Defra. But on her final major trip in the role last week, she raised a key issue for the pork sector - the suspension of pork exports to China from key UK pork plants.
China suspended the export licences from three plants during the Covid epidemic – Pilgrim’s Ashton plant, which has since closed, and Cranswick’s Watton plant and the Brechin plant, taken over last year by the Brown Food Group - which all remain unable to ship pork to China.
More HERE
November 13, 2023
Steve Barclay replaces Therese Coffey at Defra
Steve Barclay has replaced Thérèse Coffey as Defra Secretary, as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reshuffles his Cabinet, following the sacking of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary.
The MP for North East Cambridgeshire moves over from the role of Health Secretary as part of a wide-ranging reshuffle that also saw former Prime Minister David Cameron make a surprise return to Government as Foreign Secretary.
Full story HERE
November 9, 2023
SPP falls back again
The pig price continues to fall, albeit relatively steadily compare with what is happening in Europe.
EU-spec SPP fell by a further 1.1p during the week ended November 4 to stand at 217.78p/kg. This followed the previous week’s dip of 0.76p, and means the SPP has now fallen for 10 out of the last 11 weeks. The SPP has lost nearly 8p since mid-August, but remains just over 17p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has narrowed again. Following the previous week’s loss of 1.64p, its biggest fall of the year, the APP, which includes premium pigs, actually increased by 0.19p to stand at 218.62p/kg during the week ended October 21. This left it just 0.26p behind the SPP, as the reversal of the usual relationship continues.
The two main factors in falling prices appear to be a weakening domestic demand for pork, allied with falling EU prices.
The EU reference price for the week ended October 29 was down by nearly another penny to 186.07p/kg, on the back of further falls in France and Spain, meaning it has now come back by around 29p since mid-July.
The gap between the UK and EU reference prices closed slightly during the week to just over 30p, but with the UK price coming down at a much slower pace over the autumn, the gap has grown significantly from just 6p in July, making imports more competitive. This has been reflected in recent monthly HMRC import data.
Estimated GB slaughterings remain well below year earlier levels. The figure for the week ended November 4 was down by more than 5,000 the previous week at 151,859, which was 20,000 lower the same week in 2022 and 36,000 below the equivalent 2021 figure.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample were virtually unmoved at 90.41kg during the week ended November 4, having moved up by a kilo in recent weeks. The latest figure was nearly a kilo up on a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £188/tonne for November, slightly up on a week ago, and £191/tonne for January, also slightly up.
November 3, 2023
Pig World on the move!
Pig World and the Weekly Tribune, along with the three other Lewis Business Media agricultural titles, plus events, have been sold to the Mark Allen Group, owner of Farmers Weekly.
Full story HERE.
November 2, 2023
SPP drops back again
The pig price continues to fall, albeit relatively steadily compared with what is happening in Europe.
The EU-spec SPP fell by a further 0.76p during the week ended October 28 to stand at 218.88p/kg. The the price index has now fallen in nine out of the past 10 weeks and, following the previous week’s dip of 0.48p, the SPP has now lost nearly 7p since mid-August, although it is still 18.6p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has widened again. Following the previous week’s loss of just over 1p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, was down by another 1.64p during the week ended October 14, its biggest fall of the year, to stand at 218.43p/kg.
This increased the gap between the two price indexes, which had closed to virtually nothing, to 1.21p, with the SPP still ahead of the APP, as the reversal of the usual relationship continues.
The two main factors driving falling prices appear to be a weakening domestic demand for pork, allied with falling EU prices.
The EU reference price for the week ended October 22 was down by a further 3p to 187p/kg, with further falls in Germany, France, Spain and the Netherlands, meaning it has now come back more than 28p since mid-July. With the UK price coming down at a much slower pace, the gap between the UK and EU reference prices has grown from 6p to close to 31p.
There were further significant pig price reductions in France, Spain and Ireland last week, with the German price holding up after recent significant falls
Estimated GB slaughterings remain well below year earlier levels. The figure for the week ended October 28 was similar to the previous week at 157,211, 31,000 down on the same week in 2022.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample fell back slightly to 90.38kg during the week ended October 28, having moved up by a kilo in recent weeks. The latest figure was virtually identical to a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £185/tonne for November, similar to a week ago, and £189/tonne for January, slightly down on the week.
November 1, 2023
Red Tractor puts Green Farms Commitment on hold until NFU review is complete
Red Tractor has announced it will not proceed with its Green Farms Commitment until the NFU has completed its independent review of the assurance body’s governance.
Red Tractor announced in early October that it intended to introduce the voluntary scheme from April 2024 to provide assurance to consumers over the environmental credentials of the farms producing their food.
But the announcement provoked a huge backlash among farmers across the sectors, amid widespread anger that the scheme had been developed, so far, without consultation with farmers.
“There will be no decisions on the implementation or timing of the GFC or on other changes to existing Red Tractor Standards until that NFU review is complete," Red Tractor chair Christine Tacon said on Tuesday.
Full story HERE
‘Significant disruption’ to pork production in Northern Ireland, as vets strike
There is set to be significant disruption to pork production in Northern Ireland this week, as Government vets carry out a five-day strike over an unsatisfactory pay deal.
Border controls in Northern Ireland are also being disrupted by the action.
Full story HERE
October 26, 2023
SPP dips below 220-mark for first time since May
The pig price continues to fall on the back of weakening domestic demand and falling EU prices. The EU-spec SPP was down by a further 0.48p during the week ended October 21 to stand at 219.64p/kg, the first time it has dipped below the 220p-mark since early May.
The latest decline followed he previous week’s 1.62p dip, and means the SPP has now lost 6p since mid-August, although it is still around 19p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has narrowed again. Following the previous week’s loss of 0.61p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, was down another 1.01p to stand at 220.07p/kg during the week ended October 7, closing the gap between the two price indexes to just 0.05p, albeit with the SPP still ahead of the APP.
Another 4p came off the EU reference price during the week ended October 15, taking it below 190p/kg, led by a fall of 7p in Germany, and that was before further price dips across Europe last week. The EU reference price has now lost more than 25p since mid-July and, with the UK price falling at a much more sedate pace, the gap between the EU and UK reference prices has widened from 6p to nearly 28p.
Estimated GB slaughterings remain well below year earlier levels. The figure for the week ended October 21 fell back by nearly 3,000 on the week to stand at at 157,546, 32,000 down on the same week in 2022.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample stabilised 90.57kg during the week ended October 21, having moved up by a kilo over the past fortnight. The latest figure was virtually identical to a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £185/tonne for November, down by £5 on a week ago, and £190/tonne for January, also £5 down on the week.
October 25, 2023
Public money to be paid to remove pigs from land to facilitate housing development
A farmer is to be paid public money to keeping pigs on his land to raise pigs in Norfolk, in order to facilitate a major housing in what is reportedly the first deal of its type.
The Eastern Daily Press reports that ‘highly unusual deal’ is part of a move to reduce the amount of nutrients flowing into Norfolk’s waterways, as part of the Government’s nutrient neutrality requirements, to get housebuilding moving again.
Under the terms of the deal, the farmer will be compensated by an unspecified amount, and covenants placed on his land, meaning pigs can no longer be farmed there.
More HERE
October 19, 2023
Another big drop for SPP as EU prices plummet
The UK pig price continues to drop, albeit at a slower pace than the pork market decline taking place in major EU pork producing countries.
The EU-spec SPP was down by a further 1.62p during the week ended October 14 to stand at 220.12p/kg, after the previous week's tiny increase.
This was the second biggest fall of the year – and the SPP has now lost 5.5p since mid-August, but still currently stands 20p ahead of a year ago.
Following the previous week’s loss of 1.5p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, lost another 0.61p to stand at 221.08p/kg during the week ended October 7. This gap between the two price indexes increased once again, with the SPP now 0.65p ahead of the APP.
One of the biggest drivers in the decline of UK prices is falling EU prices. The EU reference price dropped back by a further 2p during the week ended October 8 to stand at 193.78p/kg, led by falls of 4p in Spain, 3p in Germany and 2p in France.
The EU reference price is now nearly 22p down on its mid-July high, while the latest drop has increased the gap between the UK and EU reference prices to beyond 25p, compared with a low of just 6p during the week ended July 23. Prices in a number of EU countries, led by Germany, fell back further last week.
Estimated GB slaughterings remain well below year earlier levels. The figure for the week ended October 14 was down by more than 1,000 on the week, at 160,300, 27,500 down on the same week in 2022.
The figure quote last week for the week ended October 7, 169,000 has been significantly revised downwards to 161,600, also 27,000 down year-on-year, while all the figures quoted for a number of weeks prior to that have also been notably reduced.
Having topped 90kg for the first the time last week, average carcase weights in the SPP sample moved up by a further 0.27kg to 90.58kg, having spent the entirety of 2023 until early October averaging 88-89kg. The latest figure was 0.3kg down on a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £190/tonne for November, up by £8 on a week ago, and £195/tonne for January, £7 up on last week.
October 17, 2023
Big decline in EU pork production, prices also falling
EU Pork production was 8% down, at 11.9Mt, over the first seven months of this year, the second successive year of significant decline.
The production figure for January to July was also 10% down on the five-year average. The EU Commission’s latest forecast is for pig meat production in 2023 to end the year down 6.6%.
More HERE
October 16, 2023
September pork production 10% down year-on-year
The year-on-year decline in UK pork production continued through September, on the back of reduced pig numbers coming through the system.
More HERE
October 12, 2023
SPP stabilises after previous week's drop
The EU-spec SPP stabilised, moving up fractionally to stand at 221.73p/kg during the week ended October 7.
The 0.01p rise came on the back of the SPP's biggest drop of the year the previous week, 1.75p, and ended a run of six consecutive weekly reductions, during which the SPP has lost 4.6p. It currently stands just over 21p ahead of a year ago.
Following the previous week’s gain of 0.25p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, lost 1.5p to stand at 221.68p/kg during the week ended September 30. While this was the APP’s biggest reduction of the year, the gap between the two price indexes actually narrowed to virtual parity, 0.04p, as the SPP fell by more.
The EU reference price dropped back by more than a penny during the week ended October 1 to stand at 195.77p/kg, led by a 3p fall in France, with drops of 1-2p in Germany, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands.
The EU reference price is now nearly 20p down on where it was in mid-July and the latest drop has seen the gap between the UK and EU reference increase to 24p, compared with low of just 6p during the week ended July 23. Prices in a number of EU countries, including Germany, fell back further last week.
Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended October 7 were up nearly 13,000 on the previous week at 169,302, albeit still 19,000 below the same week in 2022. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample topped 90kg for the first time this year, rising by 0.7kg to 90.31kg, having spent the entirety of 2023 to this point averaging 88-89kg. The latest figure was fractionally up on a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £182/tonne for November, down by £3 on a week ago, and £188/tonne for January, £2 being last week.
October 5, 2023
SPP records biggest drop of the year
The EU-spec SPP dropped back by a huge 1.75p to 221.72p/kg during the week ended September 30.
This was the sixth consecutive weekly reduction – and by a distance the biggest weekly fall this year. It follows a five week period when the lost just 2.2p in a series of small weekly reversals. The price index currently stands just over 21p ahead of a year ago.
Following the previous week’s loss of 1.11p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, gained 0.25p to reach 223.18p/kg during the week ended September 23, leaving it 0.3p behind the SPP for the week.
The EU reference price moved up again during the week ended September 24, gaining 0.6p to stand at 197.04p/kg. With the UK reference price dropping back by more than a penny that week to just over 220p/kg, the gap narrowed to 23p, compared with the recent low of just 6p during the week ended July 23.
Prices in a number of EU countries, including Germany, have fallen further since then, however - and this will have been a factor in the SPP's big drop this week.
Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 30 dropped back again to 156,541, nearly 8,000 down on the week, and 13,000 below the same week in 2022. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample rose very slightly to 89.59kg in the week ended September 30, 0.8kg behind a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £186/tonne for November, down by £6 on a week ago, and £190/tonne for January.
Disappointment over MAC butcher decision
The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has expressed disappointment that the Government’s advisory body on labour has rejected calls to add butchers and poultry dressers to the Shortage Occupation List (SOL).
The Migration Advisory Committee have just published the outcome of its Review of the Shortage Occupation List, concluding that adding butchers to the list would simply ’embed poor conditions in the industry further.
More HERE
October 2, 2023
Pilgrim's UK's financial outlook improves, despite 2022 losses
Pork producer and processor Pilgrim’s UK recorded an operating loss of £2.6 million in 2022, which marked a significant improvement on the £16m loss recorded in 2021.
With Pilgrim’s UK and its former incarnation, Tulip, having struggled financially in recent years, the company said its 2022 performance indicated that its business recovery and growth plan was ‘progressing well’.
More HERE
September, 28, 2023
The EU-spec SPP dropped back by 0.28p, just as it did the previous week, to stand at 223.46p/kg during the week ended September 23.
This is the fifth consecutive weekly reduction, during which time the SPP has lost 2.2p. Nonetheless, it is still 23.5p ahead of a year ago.
The APP has slipped behind the SPP once more, having briefly moved ahead for the first time since late-May last week. Following the previous week’s increase of 0.91p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, dropped back by 1.11p to stand at 222.94p/kg during the week ended September 16, leaving it 0.2p behind the SPP.
The UK price did is relatively sedate compared with what has been happening in Europe. However, the EU reference price stabilised during the week ended September 17, gaining 0.08p to stand at 196.42p/kg.
With the UK reference price dropping back by 2p that week to 22.32p/kg, the gap narrowed to 25p,compared with the recent low of just 6p during the week ended July 23. Prices in a number of EU countries, including Germany, have fallen further since then, however.
Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 23 were down by nearly 2,000 on the week to 164,404, well ahead of a year ago due to the extra bank holiday put on for the Queen’s funeral, but, more relevantly, nearly 6,000 ahead of the 2021 figure. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample dropped back by 0.38kg to 89.53kg in the week ended September 23, 0.64kg behind a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £192/tonne for November, slightly up on a week ago, and £197/tonne for January.
September 21, 2023
SPP dips again, as APP inches ahead once more
Pig prices continue to come down, albeit at a slower rate than we have seen in Europe over the past couple of months.
The EU-spec SPP fell by a further 0.28p to 223.74p/kg during the week ended September 16, the fourth consecutive weekly reduction. This latest drop followed the previous week’s 0.73p reduction and means the SPP has lost nearly 2p in the space of four weeks. It still stands 23.5p ahead of a year ago, however.
After months of the usual relationship being turned on its head, the APP has moved ahead of the SPP. The APP, which includes premium pigs, gained 0.91p to stand at 224.04p/kg during the week ended September 9. The SPP dropping back by 0.73p that week to 224.03p/kg, meaning the APP moved narrowly ahead for the first time since late-May
The EU reference price fell by another 1.8p during the week ended September 9 to stand at 196.32p/kg, driven by falls of 4.5p in France and nearly 4p in Spain, with most other markets down by smaller amounts.
The UK reference price actually increased that week to top 223p/kg, meaning the gap between the EU and UK reference prices grew to nearly 27p, compared with just 6p during the week ended July 23.
Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 16 were up for the third successive week, increasing by more than 1,000 head to 159,079, albeit still 12,600 below 2022 levels for the week. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 9 were up for the third successive week, increasing by nearly 7,000 to 166,205 head, still 8,400 below 2022 levels for the week, but, notably, fractionally ahead of the 2021 figure for the same week. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample moved up very slightly to 89.91kg in the week ended September 16, meaning the average has risen by more than 0.7kg over the past three weeks to record the heaviest average since April. The average weight stands 0.6g ahead of a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £190/tonne for November, slightly up on a week ago, and £191/tonne for January.
September 14, 2023
SPP down for third consecutive week
The EU-spec SPP has fallen for the third consecutive week, recording its biggest fall since the start of the year, 0.73p, to drop back to 224.03p/kg during the week ended September 9.
This latest drop, following the previous week’s 0.58p reduction, means the SPP currently stands 21p ahead of a year ago.
The APP, which includes premium pigs, lost 1.6p to stand at 223.13p/kg during the week ended September 2, leaving it 1.6p behind the SPP, as the gap grew again.
The gap between UK and mainland Europe prices also continues to grow. The EU reference price fell by nearly 1p during the week ended September 2 to 198.22p/kg, driven mainly a drop of nearly 5p in France, with other markets stabilising after recent falls.
The gap to the UK price has moved beyond 24p, compared with just 6p during the week ended July 23, when the EU reference price stood at 215.5p/kg.
Domestic supplies remain tight, although estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 9 were up for the second successive week, increasing by more than 1,000 head to 159,079, albeit still 12,600 below 2022 levels for the week. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample increased by 0.25kg to 89.89kg in the week ended September 9, meaning the average has risen by more than 0.7kg in the space of three weeks. This is the heaviest average since April, other than an identical figure in July. The average weight stands 1.3kg ahead of a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at around £188/tonne for November, similar to a week ago, and £191/tonne for January.
September 7, 2023
SPP suffers biggest drop since first week of year
The EU-spec SPP fell for the second consecutive week, dropping back by 0.58p to 224.76p/kg during the week ended September 2.
The was the biggest fall since the first week of the year, and means the SPP currently stands 25p ahead of a year ago.
Following the previous week’s gain of 1.09p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, lost 0.69p to stand at 224.73p/kg during the week ended August 26. This left it 0.6p behind the SPP.
The gap between UK and mainland Europe prices continues to grow. The EU reference price fell by a further 4p during the week ended August 26 to 199.04p/kg, led by further falls of 4-5p in Germany, the Netherlands and France and 7p in Poland.
Following weeks if falling EU prices, the gap between the UK and EU reference prices has extended to a far more typical 24p, after being as close as 6p in in July.
Domestic supplies remain tight, although the estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended September 2 was up by 8,000 head to 157,740, albeit still 8,000 below 2022 levels for the week, and 19,000 below the 2021 figure. The estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Average carcase weights in the SPP sample were virtually unmoved at 89.64kg in the week ended September 2, 1.4kg ahead of a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB today at around £187/tonne for November, similar to a week ago, and £191/tonne for January.
August 24, 2023
After dropping back the previous week, the EU-spec SPP inched up again to reach a new high of 225.65p/kg during the week ended August 19.
The 0.13p increase means the SPP currently stands nearly 28p ahead of a year ago, having gained 25p since early January.
The APP, which includes premium pigs, saw a small increase of 0.14p to stand at 224.34p/kg during the week ended August 12, narrowing the gap to the SPP to just 1.18p, albeit with the usual relationship between the two price averages still reversed.
Prices in Europe continue to fall. The EU reference price fell by a further 1.7p during the week ended August 12 to 209.36p/kg, led by a further fall of 2.7p in Germany, with the Netherlands and Spain also in reverse. It has now fallen by 6p over the space of three weeks, meaning the gap between the EU and UK reference prices has increased to nearly 13p, compared with typical levels last year of around 20p.
The latest Defra statistics show July UK clean pig slaughterings remained 15% below July 22 levels at 793,000 head. Estimated GB slaughterings for the week ended August 19 were 4,000 head down on the previous two weeks at 155,702 head, more than 7,000 below 2022 levels for the week, and 26,500 below the 2021 figure.
Carcase weights were again virtually unmoved, losing 2g to average 89.17kg in the SPP sample in the week ended August 19. Average weights are 1.6kg ahead of a year ago.
London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB today at around £188/tonne for November, similar to a week ago.
August 22, 2023
July slaughter figures highlight production decline
The latest Defra slaughter statistics show July UK clean pig slaughterings remained 15% below July 22 levels at 793,000 head.
This was also below the June 2023 figure of 815,000, despite the extra day, and the May figure of 869,000. July pigmeat production, at 72,000 tonnes, was also 15% lower than in July 2022.
AHDB’s estimated GB slaugherings, which are subject to revision, show numbers picked up slightly in the first two weeks of August, at just below 160,000 during both weeks, compared with around 153,000/week in July. The figure for the week ended August 12 remained 6,000 below 2022 levels and 13,000 below 2021, however.
More HERE
August 3, 2023
SPP rises again to top 225p/kg
The pig price continues to rise. The EU-spec SPP moved up by a further 0.45p to reach 225.43p/kg during the week ended July 29.
After the surprise drop earlier in the month, the third successive weekly increase means the SPP currently stands at just under 30p ahead of a year ago.
The APP, which includes premium pigs, gained 0.4p to reach 222.58 during the week ended July 15, leaving it 2.4p behind the SPP, as the reversal of the normal trend continued.
Prices in Europecontinue to rise. The EU reference price gained nearly 2.5p during the week ended July 23, to reach 216.58p/kg, with gains of 2-3p across the board. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices has narrowed further to below 5p.
Estimated GB slaughterings dropping back by more than 2,000 head on the week to stand at 155,401 during the week ended July 22, 24,000 below 2022 levels for the week.
Carcase weights are moving back up again, averaging 89.25kg in the SPP sample in the week ended July 29, up 36g on the week and the third successive weekly rise. Average weights are now 1.56kg ahead of a year ago and nearly 3kg ahead of 2021.
Cereal prices have dropped back since a spike following the end of the Black Sea grain deal on July 17. London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB on Wednesday at £195/tonne for November, £11 down on a week ago and £20 on two weeks ago.
August 1, 2023
Pig industry returns to profit in Q2
After 10 successive debilitating quarters of losses, during which the industry racked up debts estimated to be in excess of £750 million, British pig producers finally returned to profit in the second quarter of this year, AHDB's latest net margin figures show.
The average net margin of £22/head during the quarter was up from a narrow loss of £1/head in Q1 and the horrific figure -£52/head during the equivalent quarter last year, which followed an even worse average loss of -£58/head in Q1 2022.
The full economic cost of production for Q2, based on performance figures for breeding and finishing herds, was estimated at 196p/kg deadweight, a 17p/kg reduction from Q1, as feed costs fell back by that amount to an estimated 123p/kg. Feed costs accounred for an estimated 63% of total costs, the lowest percentage since Q3 2020.
However, interest rates continued to rise in Q2 of 2023, which put pressure on costs associated with buildings, mortgages, and any related finance.
Pig prices rose over the quarter, with the APP up 10p to 221p/kg and the SPP up 13p to 221p/kg, resulting in a net margin, based on the APP, of 25p/kg, or £22/head, the highest figure since Q3 2020.
Since the end of Q1, pig prices have continued to rise, with the SPP now at 225p/kg. Feed costs rose rapidly since the end of the Black Sea Grain Deal was confirmed in mid-July, although they have dropped back since, with November feed wheat at £196/tonne today, after hitting around £215/tonne in late-July.
July 27, 2023
SPP inches up
The average pig price has inched up again, moving in the right direction for the second week in a row, after the surprise drop earlier in the month.
The EU-spec SPP gained 0.09p to reach 224.98p/kg during the week ended July 22, following the previous week’s rise of 0.82p. It means the SPP currently stands at just over 30p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and the APP is widening, as the reversal of the normal trend continued, reflecting the loss of the 'premium' on premium pigs, such as outdoor bred and reared. The APP lost 0.4p during the week ended July 15, leaving it 2.5p behind the SPP.
Prices in Europe remain high – the EU reference price fell back by 0.28p to 214.1p/kg, despite gains in the Netherlands and Poland. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices widened to 7.6p, still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
Pig supplies remain tight - however, estimated GB slaughterings increased by more than 9,000 on the previous week to 157,629 during the week ended July 22, although this is more than 20,000 below 2022 levels. It is worth noting that the estimated slaughter figures can be subject to significant revision.
Carcase weights are inching up agains, averaging 88.89kg in the SPP sample in the week ended July 22, the second successive weekly rise and up 0.36kg on the week. Average weights are now 1.36p ahead of a year ago and 2.3kg ahead of 2021.
Cereal prices have moved up since the end of the Black Sea grain deal was announced on July 17. However, London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB yesterday at £206/tonne for November, £10 down on a week ago.
Pork imports rise as domestic supplies dwindle
UK pork imports rose by 16% on the month in May as supplies of domestic pork remained suppressed due to the contraction of the national breeding herd.
Total pork imports for the month, at 68,600 tonnes, were nearly 9,300 tonnes up from April’s levels and 2% (1,600 tonnes) higher than May 2022 levels.
Lower availability in the domestic market has been the driving factor behind increased in imports – UK pig slaughterings in May were 14% down on a year ago, following April’s 19% reduction, Defra figures show. The increase has been recorded despite tight EU supplies and high pork prices.
More HERE
EU pork production plummets as mixed global outlook forecast
Overall global production is predicted to reach 114.8m tonnes in 2023, according to the USDA’s latest forecasts.
But EU pigmeat production has seen large falls in capacity so far this year, and is forecast to end the year 5.5% below 2022 volumes, according to the latest EU short term outlook.
The USDA is, however, forecasting production growth in China, Canada, and Brazil, offset by declines in the EU, Mexico, and the Philippines.
More HERE
July 24, 2023
Cranswick reveals big leap in revenue in latest financial update
Cranswick's latest financial update shows it grew its revenues by a further 14.7% over the first quarter of this financial year, continuing a long-running upward trend.
In the 13 weeks to June 24, the Hull-based pig and poultry business's UK revenue was ahead year-on-year across all four of its food product categories, underpinned by positive volume momentum in its Fresh Pork, Convenience and Gourmet categories.
Far East export sales were ‘subdued’, however, reflecting the anticipated seasonal slowdown in demand in China. But, overall, cost inflation ‘continues to be proactively managed and mitigated through tight cost control and ongoing recovery’, the company said.
It also reiterated its desire to continue to grow its pork production base to secure future supplies.
Full story HERE
RSPCA Assured launches ‘sizzling’ summer barbecue campaign
It might not feel like barbecue weather at the moment, but RSPCA Assured has launched its 'sizzling' summer campaign, aiming to encourage consumers to buy higher welfare chicken and pork for their barbecues.
The campaign is looking to highlight the importance of buying higher welfare products in 30-second advert that follows a group of people at a barbecue cooking chicken burgers, sausages, kebabs and corn on the cob.
It will appear across the Channel 4 network from July 20 to 31.
More HERE
July 20, 2023
SPP back on the upward path, but end of Ukraine grain deal sees wheat price rise
The average pig price is moving in the right direction again, as pig supplies hit 10-year low, but wheat prices are also moving up once more, on the back of the end of the Ukraine grain deal.
The EU-spec SPP gained a further 0.82p during the week ended July 15 to reach 224.89p/kg, another new high. This followed the previous week’s reverse of 0.1p, which ended a run of 25 consecutive weekly increases since the first week of 2023.
The SPP currently stands at nearly 32p ahead of a year ago and remains ahead of the APP, which gained 0.13p to stand at 222.75p during the week ending July 8. This narrowed the gap but left the APP, which includes premium pigs, 1.3p behind the SPP.
The EU reference price was up by 0.56p to to 214.38p/kg during the week ended July 9, and the gap between the EU and UK reference prices stood at 6.5p.
UK pig slaughterings in June, at 813,700 head, were down 6% on May and 11% down on June 2023, official Defra figures show. The pig kill for the first six months of the year stood at 4.95m head, an 11% decline on last year and the lowest number for the period since 2013, with pigmeat production 13% behind 2022 volumes and at the lowest level since 2017.
The trend is continuining. AHDB’s estimated GB slaughtering figure for week ended July 15, at 153,266 head, was 27,000 down on 2022 and 21,000 below the 2021 figure.
Carcase weights have also been coming down in recent weeks. Carcase weights averaged 88.53kg in the SPP sample in the week ended July 8, virtually unmoved on the previous three weeks, 0.65p ahead of a year ago and 2.2kg ahead of 2021.
Cereal prices rise
The biggest blot on the horizon is the impact of Russia's decision not to renew the Ukraine grain export deal, which expired on July 17, on global and UK wheat prices.
Wheat prices on the European stock exchange soared by 8.2% on Wednesday from the previous day, to €253.75 (£219.78) per tonne, while corn (maize) prices were up 5.4%, the BBC reports.
US wheat futures jumped 8.5% on Wednesday, their highest daily rise since just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
On July 20, London feed wheat was quoted by AHDB at £216/tonne for November, more than £20 up on a week ago.
July 17, 2023
Russia pulls out of Ukraine grain deal
Russia has formally notified the UN, Turkey and Ukraine that it will not renew the Ukraine grain deal that has helped to keep a lid on global food prices for the past year.
The deal, which allowed cargo ships to depart from the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi, was originally brokered in July 2022. It allowed crucial grain exports from Ukraine, one of the world's most important exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley.
The latest extension expired today, July 17, and Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the agreements had reached a 'de facto' end on Monday, the BBC reported.
Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities markets at Rabobank, said the market had already been anticipating the cancellation of the deal, with wheat prices up by 3% today, and 12% in total since last Wednesday.
In its latest grain report, AHDB said the news was supporting prices in the short term, although longer term, global supply still looks to satisfy current demand.
UK feed wheat was quoted by AHDB today at £196/t for November, £199/t for January and £202/t for March.
More HERE
July 13, 2023
SPP falls back for the first time since early January
The EU-spec SPP recorded a 0.1p drop during the week ended July 1 to fall back to 224.07p/kg.
After the previous week’s increase of just 1.32p, the reverse ended a run of 25 consecutive weekly increase since the first week of 2023, during which time the price index has gained 24p. It currently stands at 33p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has widened again. After the previous week’s big increase of 0.43p, which closed the gap to 0.4p, the APP, which includes premium pigs, was up by just 0.18p to 222.62p during the week ending July 1. With a much bigger increase recorded in the SPP that week, this left the APP more than 1.5p behind the SPP, meaning the reversal of the usual SPP-APP relationship continues.
The EU reference price was up by more than 2p to to 213.8p/kg during the week ended July 2, driven mainly by 4p increases in Germany and France. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices continues to narrow, dipping to under 7p, and still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
GB estimated throughputs for the four weeks ending July 1 totalled 615,300 head, down 8,700 head from the previous four-week period and 94,400 head down on the same four weeks last year.
There was little change during the first week of July. AHDB’s estimated GB slaughtering figure for the week ended July 8, at 157,121 head, was virtually identical to the previous week, and was 18,500 down on last year and 13,600 below the 2021 figure for the week.
On top of the reduced slaughter numbers, carcase weights have been coming down. In June, the SPP average carcase weight was 900g lower than May to sit at 88.52kg, the first time weights have been below 89kg this year.
Carcase weights averaged 88.49kg in the SPP sample in the week ended July 8, virtually unmoved on the previous two weeks, and moving ahead of year earlier levels for the first time in many months.
Cereal prices remain at more palatable levels, with London feed wheat on July 12 quoted by AHDB at £194/tonne for November, similar to last week, and £198 for January.
July 12, 2023
Cumbrian abattoir closes in a blow to local farmers
Another small, local outlet for livestock, Black Brow abattoir, near Wigton, has closed its doors for the last time.
The abattoir has been described as a lifeline for Cumbrian farmers who have relied on it since it was taken over in 2004, and its closure leaves local producers without access to a service.
A spokesperson for the business said that abattoir was used for slaughtering cattle, sheep, pigs and goats, but the challenging pig industry has had a significant impact on the business’ bottom line.
More HERE
AHDB CEO to step down at end of the year
AHDB chief Executive Officer Tim Rycroft is to step down at the end of the year, after two years in the role.
Mr Rycroft, took up the position in August 2021, replacing Jane King, will leave the organisation in December 2023. His tenure coincided with a period of significant change for the levy body, as the levy was ended for two sectors, and the remaining four sectors have put new strategies in place, following the Shape the Future vote.
The process for finding a successor will begin shortly.
More HERE
July 6, 2023
Pilgrim's Ashton plant to kill pigs for the last time on Friday
Pilgrim's Ashton site will kill pigs for the last time on Friday, July 7, with existing operations transferring to the company's abattoir and butchery facilities in Spalding and Westerleigh.
Pilgrim’s UK announced proposals to close the 70-year-old abattoir and butchery facility in Greater
Manchester, in May, leaving more than 500 members of staff potentially facing redundancy.
"Pilgrim’s UK has been working closely with the site team and customers to ensure we maintain quality and service levels throughout this process," the company said.
Full story HERE
SPP up by biggest margin in three months
There is no sign at all of this year's upward movement in the pig price slowing against a backdrop of tight supplies, a strong EU market and steady demand.
The EU-spec SPP was up by a further 1.32p to reach yet another new high of 224.16p/kg during the week ended July 1. After the previous week’s relatively small step forward of just 0.19p, this was the biggest weekly rise for three months. The SPP has now risen for 24 consecutive weeks since the start of the year, gaining nearly 24p in the process. It currently stands at nearly 35p ahead of a year ago.
The SPP remains ahead of the APP, which includes premium pigs, a trend seen over the past month or so that highlights among other things, how under-pressure consumers are moving away from premium products.
The gap has narrowed further, however. After the previous week’s increase of just 1.5p, which closed the gap to 0.64p, the APP, was up by a further 0.43p to 222.44p during the week ending June 24, leaving it 0.4p behind the SPP.
Prices in Europe remain high and the gap to the equivalent UK price is closing again. After gaining 2p over the previous fortnight, the EU reference price was up by a further 1.4p to to 211.67p/kg during the week ended June 25, driven by increases in France, the Netherlands and Spain. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices narrowed to just over 8p, still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
Estimated GB slaughterings were down 12% year-on-year during May, a reduction of more than 100,000 head on May, AHDB data shows.
There has been no sign of the situation easing in June. AHDB's estimated GB slaughtering figure for the week ended July 1, at 157,118 head, was around 1,000 up on the previous weeks and about 6,000 higher than the three preceding weeks, although it remained 23,000 down on last year and17,000 below the 2021 figure for the week.
After five consecutive weeks of decline, the average carcase weight has stabilised, rising by 0.02kg to reach 88.47kg in the SPP sample in the week ended July 1, leaving it just over 0.5kg kg below year earlier levels, but 1.4kg above the 2021 average for the week.
Cereal prices remain at more palatable levels, with London feed wheat quoted by AHDB at £194.5/tonne for November on July 5 and £170/tonne for July.
June 29, 2023
SPP inches higher
The SPP has moved up again, albeit by a smaller margin than in recent weeks. The EU-spec SPP was up by 0.19p to reach another new high of 222.84p/kg during the week ended June 24.
The latest rise, the smallest since early February, follows the previous week’s increase of 0.57p and means the SPP has now risen for 23 consecutive weeks since the start of the year, gaining more than 22p in the process. It currently stands at 36.5p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has narrowed. After the previous week’s increase of just 0.02p, which left it 1.6p behind the SPP, the APP, which includes premium pigs, moved up by a more healthy 1.5p to 222.01p during the week ending June 17. This still left the APP - typically around 5p higher - nearly 0.64p behind the SPP, partly reflecting shifting consumer habits as they turn away from premium products due to cost-of-living constraints.
Prices in Europe remain high. After rising by just over 1p the previous week, the EU reference price was up by a further 0.77p to to 210.23p/kg during the week ended June 18, driven by small increases in the Netherlands and Germany. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices narrowed to 9.6p, still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
AHDB’s estimated GB slaughtering figure for the week ended June 24, at 156,143, was around 5,000 up on the previous three weeks, although it remained more than 18,500 down on last year and more than 13,000 below the equivalent week in 2021.
Average carcase weights continue to fall, dropping slightly to 88.45kg in the SPP sample in the week ended June 24, the fifth weekly decline in a row, leaving it less than 1kg below year earlier levels, but more than 2kg above the 2021 average for the week.
Cereal prices remain at more palatable levels, with London feed wheat quoted by AHDB at nearly £179/tonne for July and £197/tonne for November on June 28. Other costs, including soya and energy, remain high.
June 26, 2023
China pork imports rise, but remain well below 2021 peak
Chinese pork imports, including offal, were 20% up year-on-year, at 663,200 tonnes, during the first four months of 2023.
However, imports volumes remain significantly below volumes for the same period in 2021, at 1.56Mt, when its production capabilities were severely reduced from ASF, reflecting the ongoing recovery of China’s domestic pork production.
More HERE
Food businesses urged to build on export success
Meanwhile, that UK food businesses have been urged to build on the opportunities provided by continuing growth in global meat and dairy consumption.
UK red meat exports hit record levels in 2022 and were worth £1.7 billion, with the dairy sector achieving a similar level. Global meat consumption expected to grow by 1.8% and fresh dairy product consumption by 2.53% in 2024, compared with this year.
Speaking at the AHDB Export Conference at Butchers’ Hall, in London, AHDB chair Nicholas Saphir said: “Our exporters and colleagues in Government should be congratulated on the fabulous job done in driving export growth for UK agri-food which is reflected in the figures from 2022 that speak for themselves. It is, however, imperative to maintain the momentum and build on this success."
More HERE
June 22, 2023
Pig price continues to rise, as supplies remain tight and carcase weights dip
For the 22nd consecutive week since the start of the year, the EU-spec SPP has moved upwards to reach yet another new high.
The SPP increased by 0.57p to 222.65p/kg during the week ended June 17, following the previous week's increase of 0.74p. It currently stands at nearly 38p ahead of a year ago.
The gap between the SPP and APP has widened further. The APP, which includes premium pigs, was virtually static during the week ending June 10, moving up by just 0.02p to 220.51p . This left it nearly 1.6p behind the SPP in a reversal of the usual trend.
While there are differences in how the two measures are calculated, which could partly explain the anomaly, this suggests that, on average, premium pigs, such as outdoor-bred and free range, are selling for prices below the Red Tractor average, as consumers turn away from premium products due to cost-of-living constraints.
Prices in Europe remain high. After standing still the previous week, the EU reference price was up by just over 1p to 209.43p/kg during the week ended June 11, with a 2.4p rise in Germany countered by small falls in Spain and the Netherlands. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices widened slightly to 10.5p, still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
Cereal prices remain at more palatable levels, but have moved up again after recent downward movements, with London feed wheat quoted by AHDB on June 21 at nearly £182/tonne for July and £208/tonne for November. Other costs, including soya and energy, remain high.
There is no sign of the tight supply situation easing. AHDB's estimated GB slaughtering figure for the week ended June 17, at 150,812, was 25,000 down on last year and 15,000 down on 2021.
The estimated figures for the past few weeks have been revised upwards by about 4,000 each week, however, but remain well down on 2021 and 2022 levels.
After remaining steady all year at between 89 and 90kg, average carcase weights are finally coming down.
Having fallen by more than 0.5kg to 88.65kg the previous week, the average fell back again slightly to 88.52 in the SPP sample in the week ended June 17, 1.3kg below year earlier levels, but more than 2kg above the 2021 average for the week.
June 15, 2023
SPP moves up again, as supplies tighten further
The pig price continues to reach new highs, while supplies continue to tighten in the early part of June.
The EU-spec SPP increased by a further 0.74p to reach 222.09p/kg during the week ended June 10. The latest rise means the SPP has now risen for 21 consecutive weeks since the start of the year, gaining nearly 22p in the process. It currently stands at 33p ahead of a year ago.
After the previous week’s drop of nearly a penny, which left it in the unusual of being 1.23p behind the SPP, the APP, which includes premium pigs, moved back up by 0.96p to 220.5p during the week ending June 3. This meant the SPP was still 0.84p above the APP during that week.
Prices in Europe remain high, but stable. After the previous week’s small increase, the EU reference price was virtually unchanged at 208.21 during the week ended June 4. The gap between the EU and UK reference prices remained at just over 10p, still well below typical levels last year of around 20p.
Cereal prices remain at more palatable levels, but have moved up again after recent downward movements, with London feed wheat quoted by AHDB at £178/tonne for July on June 15.
Estimated GB slaughterings were down 12% year-on-year during May, a reduction of more than 100,000 head on May, AHDB data shows.
AHDB’s estimated GB slaughtering figure for the week ended June 10, at 147,339, was the lowest of the year and was nearly 32,000 below 2022 levels and bank holiday week and 22,000 below the 2021 figure for the week.
Average carcase weights, which have been steady all year at between 89 and 90kg, increased slightly to 89.65kg in the SPP sample in the week ended June 3, 1.5kg below year earlier levels, but 2kg above the 2021 average for the week.
June 13, 2023
CCTV is working, Defra review claims
The introduction of mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in England in 2018 has been effective in improving animal welfare standards, according to a five-year post-Implementation review.
The report, which takes into account views from industry, animal welfare groups and retailers, suggests the presence mandatory CCTV has been