Pork prices to soar on the back China ASF crisis - but there could a sting in the tail

Global pork prices will soar over the next few years on the back of Asia’s ‘incredible' African swine fever crisis’, according to Gira analyst Richard Brown.

But he warned that there would a sting in the tail, as higher prices over the next few encourage pig production to rise across the global. If the industry is not careful, there could be a 'catastrophic' downturn in prices in about four years time, he told the Pigs Tomorrow conference in Leicestershire, on Tuesday

He said the scale of the crisis was ‘bigger than BSE’ and the ‘biggest deal we have had to talk about’ in his long career. Gira has radically revised its projections for Chinese pork production and is now forecasting a 24% drop in 2019. 

Mr Brown predicted that pork products will be diverted from markets right across the globe, including the EU, US, Canada and Brazil, to fill the gap. Other meats, including beef, chicken and lamb, will also be in demand.

This will lead to ‘much higher’ pig prices and an expansion in pig production. 

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