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Global pork production forecast to grow by 1% in 2019

18th Oct 2018 / By Alistair Driver

Global pork production will rise by 1% in 2019, according to the latest forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture predicts.

This forecast reflects continued expansion in China and the US, underpinned by global economic growth driving increased demand.

An expanding sow herd and improving productivity are forecast to drive a 1% increase in Chinese pork production, despite the widespread presence of African Swine Fever (ASF) in the country.

However, the USDA acknowledges that ASF is generating a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding production, supply chain logistics and the possible long term effect on demand.

Global pork exports are forecast to rise by nearly 3% in 2019, with the Chinese market dynamics playing an important role, allowing Brazilian exports to recover. Chinese pork imports are expected to increase 7% year-on-year, helped by lower global prices.

Europe is forecast to remain the largest exporter, and primarily fill China’s growing demand.

US production is expected to increase by 5% in 2019, with more pigs slaughtered, and at heavier weights. This forecast is due to recent investments in the production sector and is supported by farrowing intentions information.

The ongoing trade war is expected to limit US trade with China. However the US will still export 4% more pork, particularly to Mexico, according to the report.